Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Revlon Hits Bottom?

Revlon (NYSE:REV) announced a loss and continued to supposedly disappoint the market. The stock closed at $1.10 which is a long ways from the $40 to $60 several years ago. Is this an option disguised as a low priced stock with the benefits of a NYSE listing?

Institutions do not seem to believe. They have sold approximately 55 million shares and reduced their exposures by about 82%. Not much more to sell off when the cupboard is bare.

Fidelity has a large holding, which they could have sold by now. They hold approx 51 million shares or 12.42% of outstanding shares.

The press release was all about the bad news. The stiff wire scrub brush is being vigorously applied. The non-performing Vital Radiance is being carted out to a marketing graveyard. AP even went so far as to say they are discontinuing lines of cosmetics for older women. (Are younger women easier to trick?)

Revlon said nothing about new efforts other than they plan to leverage the Revlon name. No encouragement to investors just a strict Calvinistic promise to work hard. This can only shake out any more weak stock.

But look at this: Ronald O Perelman reported on Jan 19, 2007 3.035,000 shares. The comeback play may have already started. They need to deal with their huge debt and develop strength and flexibility. Watch for debt restructuring that offers convertible features. Calculate the potential dilution carefully. Then watch the promotion machine kick in as they put some lipstick on this pig.